Market has Houston a small home favorite across books (−1.5, ML ~−122 to −126), reflecting modest team-strength edge and home field. Denver’s OL attrition and Houston’s front (Danielle Hunter/Will Anderson Jr.) should create enough pressure to tilt the high-leverage downs toward the Texans, while C.J. Stroud’s efficiency gives Houston a higher floor even if WRs Nico Collins/Christian Kirk are managed. Low total implies a tight script where QB play in two-minute and red-zone sequencing matters, favoring Stroud at home. Hit Confidence: 6.8/10
Confidence: 6.8/10Spread/total imply a low-variance game; both defenses generate pressure and drive stall probability (multiple sack threats on each side) with kickers priced to make 2+ FGs. Houston skill-player Q-tags (Collins, Schultz, Kirk) and Denver’s ball-control tendencies cap explosive-play rate; 41 is a key total number secured at 40.5. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Aligned with ML: Houston’s pass-rush advantage vs a banged-up Denver front and Stroud’s late-down edge should be worth more than the hook in a low-total environment. If Texans lead, Nick Chubb’s rushing share and Fairbairn’s reliability close drives without needing margin beyond a field goal. Hit Confidence: 6.5/10
Confidence: 6.5/10Sutton owns a stable WR1 role (37/56 targets, 26 first downs) and profiles as Bo Nix’s chain-mover against zone; if Houston’s rush heats up, quick-game volume rises. Even in a low total, Sutton’s catch floor is supported by route dominance and red-zone involvement. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Franklin averages 44.8 ypg with 5 receptions of 20+ yards; his vertical/out-breaking tree pairs with Nix’s comfort when protection breaks down. Houston’s attention to Sutton creates intermediate windows for Franklin to clear this modest number on 5–6 targets. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10Harvey has 18 receptions on 21 targets and is schemed as a check-down/angle-route outlet, a high-value outlet versus the Texans’ edge pressure. Game script with Denver as a short dog favors 2–4 dump-offs/screens to temper rush. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Nix averages 21.4 rush ypg with designed keepers and scrambles; Houston’s rush (Hunter/Anderson) pushes QBs off spots, boosting scramble likelihood. In a tight, low-total game, his legs are a planned lever on third down and red zone. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10With Collins/Kirk/Schultz all carrying Q-tags, Hutchinson’s 27.4 ypg role is pivotal in 3WR sets, and he has 3 receptions of 20+ yards this season. Just 1–2 catches on schemed slants/crossers likely clear this modest line. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Even if Collins suits up (concussion, limited early week), Houston can distribute underneath to ancillary WRs/TEs to mitigate contact, capping volume. His season yardage efficiency remains high, but catch totals have fluctuated (26 on 46 targets), making a 5-catch threshold fragile with health management. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10Home favorite with the better late-down QB and pass rush; market consensus at −1.5 aligns with a narrow but real edge. Hit Confidence: 6.8/10
Confidence: 6.8/10Game script in a Texans win features 12–14 carries for Chubb and efficiency versus a light box, pushing him into the 45–60 range. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Stroud’s efficiency and intermediate accuracy support a 230–260 yard outcome, especially if Denver devotes resources to the run. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Low total plus red-zone resistance on both sides increases FG frequency, and Houston’s reliable kicker benefits from short fields. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Live dog in a low-total game where Denver’s pass rush can swing a possession or two and keep this within a field goal. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10As Nix’s primary read, Sutton’s target share and intermediate success (67.0 ypg) correlate strongly with Denver sustaining drives in a road upset. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10If Denver covers, Nix likely clears the 200-bar via volume and scramble-extensions against Houston’s man/zone pressure looks. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Harvey’s change-of-pace carries (4–7) and draw usage are key to staying on schedule and finishing drives if Denver is live to win. Hit Confidence: 7.1/10
Confidence: 7.1/10Lead back with red-zone utility (2 rush TD) in a favored, low-total script where Houston leans on inside zone to finish drives. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Primary end-zone target (3 TD) with contested-catch prowess; Denver’s best iso option near the stripe against single-high looks. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Dual-path TD equity (2 rush, 3 receiving) on designed screens and angle routes that exploit overaggressive edges. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Texans’ preferred clock/control closer with base/goal-line work; in a grindy game, a 20-carry script plus multiple RZ trips gives him legitimate multi-TD upside. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Low-total, pressure-heavy matchup increases drive stalls inside the 30, boosting FG volume for a reliable leg. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Broncos’ offense profiles for multiple stalled red-zone trips vs Houston’s front, aligning with 2+ FG attempts. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10With 8 sacks on the season and a top-15 win rate, Bonitto benefits from longer-developing Stroud concepts on third down. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10Opposite Bonitto, Cooper’s 6 sacks and motor create clean-up opportunities if Stroud is flushed into contain. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Denver’s shuffled interior raises pressure susceptibility and Hunter’s cross-face speed translates to high single-sack probability. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10