Market is firmly behind Detroit (−8.5 and −450 imply ~78–80% win) and the dome enhances their efficient offense with Jared Goff operating cleanly behind a top-tier scheme. Minnesota leans on rookie J.J. McCarthy and a split backfield, a profile that tends to struggle in catch-up scripts versus a fast-start Lions unit. Vikings pass-rush piece Jonathan Greenard is questionable and Jeff Okudah is in concussion protocol, further tilting matchup edges to Detroit’s passing game and RAC weapons. Hit Confidence: 8.5/10
Confidence: 8.5/10Indoor track, condensed spread, and premium skill talent (Amon-Ra, LaPorta, Gibbs; Jefferson/Addison) set up sustained scoring with red-zone conversion upside. Minnesota’s likely negative script boosts pass rate and play volume, while Detroit’s offense is efficient against blitz (Flores) and creates explosives after the catch. Kicker markets (both 1.5 FGs shaded over) also signal multiple scoring drives. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Aligned with the ML edge: Detroit’s two-headed run game plus a quick-game, blitz-beating pass attack matches well versus Minnesota’s pressure identity. A rookie QB on the road in a loud dome increases turnover/sack risk and drives win-margin variance toward Detroit. Expect Lions run volume to close this out. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10LaPorta averages 48.4 yds/g and remains a primary hot-read vs pressure, exactly where Flores’ blitz heavy looks can be attacked between the hashes. With perimeter attention commanded by Amon-Ra/Jameson, LaPorta benefits from favorable matchups and YAC; Vikings’ CB injuries further stress underneath help. Hit Confidence: 8.2/10
Confidence: 8.2/10Detroit’s slot alpha feasts on quick-hitters vs blitz and match zones, and his usage floor is elite in neutral and positive game scripts. With Minnesota potentially down CB help, St. Brown’s target per route stays sticky (chain-mover + RZ option), making 7+ catches a solid median outcome. Hit Confidence: 8.1/10
Confidence: 8.1/10Gibbs has 26 catches on 28 targets and is a designed outlet against pressure, with screen/angle concepts that punish blitzes. Expect 3–5 targets with strong YAC in space, especially as Minnesota commits resources to Amon-Ra/LaPorta. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Spread-favored script plus Detroit’s OL/run design give Montgomery 13–16 carry paths; he averages 50.7 rush yds even with Gibbs active. Vikings’ front is feisty but can be worn down by Detroit’s pace and double teams; Monty’s chunk rates rise once they lead. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Minnesota’s backfield is a timeshare with Jordan Mason absorbing early-down work and negative script suppressing carries; Jones has just 61 yards on 18 rushes this season. Detroit’s front led by Aidan Hutchinson limits early-down efficiency and squeezes the run when ahead. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Goff has only 3 INTs on 203 attempts (1.5% INT rate) and Detroit’s game plan emphasizes quick answers vs pressure and a strong run mix while leading. Potentially diminished Vikings rush (Greenard Q) plus controlled environment lowers turnover exposure. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10Detroit’s balanced, explosive offense in a dome versus a rookie QB sets up a front-running script and cover probability above market. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10With Detroit ahead, Montgomery’s 13–16 carry projection behind a physical OL should clear this modest number. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Detroit’s blitz-beater and third-down hub commands high-probability targets that sustain drives and extend possessions. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Negative script plus timeshare usage caps Jones’ rushing volume against a stout Lions front. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10If McCarthy protects the ball and the defense generates timely pressure, the talent edge of Jefferson/Addison can keep this within one score. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Jefferson’s 86.0 yds/g baseline and alpha-target share thrive in high-volume scripts, and Detroit’s zone pressures leave room for intermediate isolation wins. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Addison’s vertical/intermediate role pairs with projected pass volume to clear a lowered MGM number relative to other books. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10As a dog in a dome, attempts should climb into the low-30s with YAC from Jefferson/Addison pushing him past the low-200s. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Featured red-zone usage both as runner and receiver with elite burst, and Detroit’s high implied total in the dome boosts TD equity on schemed touches. Hit Confidence: 8.6/10
Confidence: 8.6/10Primary goal-line hammer behind a powerful OL; favorite script projects multiple red-zone trips and inside-the-5 attempts. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10Target magnet with RZ option routes and motion usage vs blitz; manufactured touches raise both floor and TD probability. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Detroit consolidates rushing TDs through Montgomery in positive scripts, and multiple projected goal-to-go series in a high implied total environment give him true multi-TD leverage.
Confidence: 7.6/10Detroit’s sustained drives plus occasional red-zone stalls versus pressure yield 2+ FG attempts for a kicker already 8/11 with deep range. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Vikings’ likely pass-heavy approach should produce multiple scoring opportunities with some drives stalling outside the red zone in a loud dome. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Greenard’s win rate plus Flores’ simulated pressures can create a free runner or clean-up sack on Goff (13 sacks taken) even if his snaps are managed. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Turner’s speed-to-power and wide-9 usage benefit from Detroit’s long-developing play-action shots, and any Taylor Decker limitation boosts edge-win chances. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Rookie QB in a pass-tilted road script versus a front that compresses pockets (Hutchinson) elevates a tipped or forced throw interception outcome. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10