Recent Form
In Week 8, the Falcons were dismantled at home by the Miami Dolphins, losing 34-10. They were outgained 338-213, managed just 11 first downs, and showed no answers running the ball or defending the big play. (reuters.com) That loss extended their record to 3-4 and dropped them deeper into hole in both the NFC South and playoff picture. Offensively the unit has become one-dimensional—struggling without Drake London, rebuilding tempo with Cousins, and generating limited success through the air under duress. Defensively, they’ve been unable to generate consistent pressure, and their struggles against efficient offenses have exposed both scheme and personnel gaps. Fundamental issues in third-down efficiency (converting under 20% last week) and run defense (all but shut down by Miami) are glaring. (reuters.com)
Injuries
Offense: - Michael Penix Jr. – QB – Questionable (thefalcoholic.com) - Drake London – WR – Questionable (thefalcoholic.com) Defense: - Jessie Bates III – S – Questionable (thefalcoholic.com) - Kyle Pitts – TE – Questionable (thefalcoholic.com)
Coaching & Scheme
Atlanta under head coach Raheem Morris has aimed to build a multi-tight end, balanced offense with Bijan Robinson as the focal point. But execution has lagged—pass protection issues, slow QB reads, and injuries have forced reliance on individual plays rather than structure. Passing concepts include all-fields routes to outside and intermediate levels, screens, and play-action—though lately, the latter has suffered from predictability and pressure. Defensively, the Falcons have been more reactive than disruptive. They prefer four-man fronts with occasional blitz packages, but their edge pressure has been inconsistent, and their run defense has regressed. In the secondary, they mix man and zone coverage—Cover 2 and 3 shells to protect against deep threats, but that often leaves them vulnerable over the middle, especially to tight ends. Turnover generation is low, and tackling breakdowns have appeared more frequently.
Matchup Analysis (vs. NE)
Facing New England’s defense is a stiff test. Atlanta’s inability to run last week—coupled with New England’s strong run defense—suggests they’ll struggle on early downs. If Harvard’s clean pass protection and intermediate routes aren’t executed under pressure, expect short passes to tight ends (like Pitts) and backs. But NE’s linebackers and safeties have shown good discipline in coverage, which could limit explosion over midfield. Offensively, the Falcons’ best path may be play action off of misdirection, checkdowns, and tight end usage; but Maye’s mobility and the Patriots’ pass rush threaten to make each snap a battle. Pressure percentages favor New England in most matchups, especially at home. The Falcons must control the line of scrimmage, avoid negative runs, and stay out of third-and-long. Any big plays (e.g. quick fade, stop-route) need to come early before defensive rotations clamp down.
Team Summary
Atlanta enters this game desperate for offensive continuity and an identity reset. The combination of injuries, particularly at QB and WR, with recent inefficiency puts them in a tough place. Their defense has the talent but not the cohesion or consistency. They must win with method and discipline, rather than hero plays. If Atlanta can establish Robinson, get physical on early downs, force turnovers, and stay in manageable down-and-distance, they’ll stay within reach. Otherwise, New England’s strengths line up for a methodical win.
Key Takeaway
Atlanta is faded in most projections—underdog with little room for error. Their path to staying in this line (covering +5.5-6) depends on forcing New England out of its comfort zone and capitalizing on early pressure.