Recent Form
In their most recent outing, the Steelers fell 35–25 at home against the Green Bay Packers. Jordan Love threw for 360 yards and three TDs, exploiting Pittsburgh’s secondary especially in the second half, while the Steelers’ offense managed two passing scores (DK Metcalf, Roman Wilson) and four long field goals from Chris Boswell. The loss dropped Pittsburgh to 4–3 on the season. (reuters.com) Overall, the Steelers have shown flashes on both sides but remain inconsistent. Offensively, they struggle to generate explosive plays and drive sustained consistency, especially through the air, as pressures and sacks have disrupted rhythm. Defensively, they continue to suffer in pass defense—ranked among the worst in yards allowed per throw—and have been vulnerable to opponents that blend play action and quick decision-making. However, their run defense has been middling rather than disastrous, and they’ve generated key turnovers in several recent games. Momentum is shaky; two straight losses have exposed depth issues and highlighted that home advantage at Acrisure is far from a guarantee.
Injuries
Offense: - Pat Freiermuth – TE – Quadricep – DNP first practice; questionable overall. (behindthesteelcurtain.com) - Zach Frazier – C – Calf – Limited practice. (steelers.com) - Isaac Seumalo – G – Pectoral – Did Not Practice. (steelers.com) - Ben Skowronek – WR – Neck – Full or limited (recently limited due to neck injury). (behindthesteelcurtain.com) - Scotty Miller – WR – Finger – Did Not Practice. (steelers.com) Defense: - DeShon Elliott – S – Knee hyperextension – OUT for upcoming game, ruled out, week-to-week. (reuters.com) - Daniel Ekuale – DT – Torn ACL – OUT for season. (reuters.com)
Coaching & Scheme
Offensively, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers rely heavily on a conservative scheme under coordinator offense that emphasizes the run but now faces deficiencies in pass protection, limiting play action effectiveness. Aaron Rodgers' presence demands intermediate timing routes, quick outs, and using shapes pre-snap to manipulate safety leverage. Tight ends are tasked for mismatches, but with Freiermuth banged up, seams become harder to exploit. Third-down offense has lagged, particularly when QB is under pressure, and red-zone efficiency is modest, given fewer explosive plays. Defensively, Pittsburgh plays a bend-don’t-break style—soft zone components in secondary, relying on safety help over the top, while front seven focuses on gap discipline more than scheme blitzing. However, with Elliott out and Ekuale gone, depth in secondary and interior line is stretched. Pass rush outside of T.J. Watt has looked overmatched against zone-heavy teams, and they give up too many chunk plays via intermediate seams. Run defense holds occasional stoutness but has been inconsistent, especially when facing dynamic backs with help in pass game.
Matchup Analysis
This matchup pits the Colts’ league-leading offense against one of the league’s most vulnerable pass defenses. Daniel Jones’ efficient mix of play-action, mid-range rhythm passing, and Jonathan Taylor’s bruising rushes presents a dual threat that strikes Pittsburgh where they have the most trouble—when safeties are in conflict. Colts offensive line has shown ability to neutralize edge rushers, meaning Pittsburgh’s pass rush must win consistently with T.J. Watt and interior pressure, or risk allowing too many clean reads. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s offense must methodically move the chains, avoid negative plays, and manage the clock in order to keep Indy’s offense off the field. Steven “home field” battering conditions are neutralized if Colts dictate tempo, which they often do. If Pittsburgh mixes in screen game, quick passes to avoid pressure, and perhaps misdirection, they may slow Jones’ decision process. Special teams and turnovers will be magnified—they can shift field position drastically. Indy’s defense, while not impenetrable, is better at forcing takeaways and preventing explosive pass plays than Pittsburgh is at protecting its QB.
Team Summary
Pittsburgh is defining itself as a team that can hang around due to streaks of physicality and opportunistic defense, but lacks consistency on offense and depth behind starters, especially in secondary. They can stay competitive when games stay close, become a factor late through special teams or defensive takeaways—but when opponents surge with momentum, the Steelers struggle to respond, especially with injuries mounting. Their win conditions against the Colts: contain Jonathan Taylor, force early disruption on Daniel Jones, protect Rodgers long enough to capitalize in close moments, and leverage home field to make this one-score game. Conversely, key weaknesses include an overmatched secondary, limited receiving depth, offensive line pressure issues, and middling third-down defense. If none of these improve, Colts likely exploit mismatches and win comfortably. The likelihood leans toward Indianapolis, unless Pittsburgh’s backups step up.
Key Takeaway
Pittsburgh’s only path to an upset hinges on disrupting Colts’ rhythm early, generating turnovers, and making this a low-scoring, tight affair. Without that, Indianapolis’ efficiency on offense and depth favors them covering the spread (COLTS –3).