Market implies a lopsided matchup (−9.5 spread) and Tennessee’s offense has been overwhelmed (Cameron Ward 34 sacks, 5 TD/6 INT), while the Chargers bring a top-end rush duo in Tuli Tuipulotu/Khalil Mack and face a Titans front with multiple Q tags. Justin Herbert’s efficiency (267.5 pass ypg, 16 TD) plus a deeper pass-catching group versus a Titans defense with Jeffery Simmons/Arden Key on the report tilt floor/ceiling to LAC. Juice is thick, but ML aligns with the most probable outcome given unit mismatches. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Titans’ protection issues (34 sacks) and a rookie QB lead to stalled drives and elevated FG probability rather than TDs, while the Chargers should control the script and salt clock with Kimani Vidal late. Under also benefits from Tennessee’s questionable playmakers and potential defensive pieces returning at less than 100%, keeping explosive scoring muted. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10LAC’s pass rush versus a Titans OL allowing 34 sacks plus Herbert’s 267.5 ypg passing baseline and multiple red-zone threats (Allen/Johnston/Gadsden II) support margin. Tennessee’s offense has struggled to sustain drives, and if Simmons/Key remain limited, LAC’s efficiency edge widens on both sides of the ball. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Allen owns 48 receptions on 70 targets (68.6%) with 31 first downs and remains Herbert’s chain-mover against a Titans secondary that’s been vulnerable underneath; game script should keep his route volume stable early. His 59.9 ypg and consistent short-area usage provide multiple pathways to 5+ catches. Hit Confidence: 8.1/10
Confidence: 8.1/10Herbert averages 267.5 ypg with 7.2 YPA and a deep threat profile (long 60) supported by Allen/McConkey/Gadsden II/Johnston; Tennessee’s questionable pass rush health further eases pocket conditions. Even as a big favorite, LAC’s first-half pass rate plus explosive pass elements favor surpassing a modest 241.5. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Gadsden II has 27 receptions on 33 targets (81.8%) and 64.2 ypg with six 20+ gains, indicating both role and efficiency; he’s functionally operating as a high-volume WR2/3 in this offense. Tennessee’s zone shells concede underneath completions, aligning with his intermediate route tree. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Johnston’s 14.5 YPR with eight 20+ yard catches and a 60-yard long provides immediate ceiling on modest volume; one or two schemed shots can clear this number. LAC’s protection edge vs. TEN boosts deep/intermediate concepts where Johnston thrives. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10At 5.2 YPC with game control projected (−9.5), Vidal profiles for closer/clock-kill volume in H2; the absence of Najee Harris (I.L.) consolidates the backfield. Titans’ offensive struggles increase LAC’s play volume and create a natural path to 18+ carries. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Spears has 10 catches on 11 targets and is the hurry-up valve behind a line allowing heavy pressure; trailing script should amplify checkdowns versus LAC’s rush. His snap utility in 2-minute and third-and-medium scenarios supports 3+ catches. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Pass-rush mismatch (Tuipulotu/Mack vs. 34 sacks allowed) and Herbert’s 267.5 ypg passing baseline project multiple LAC scoring drives and sustained margin. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10As a sizable favorite, LAC is set to lean on Vidal to close, pushing him into 18+ carries behind a 5.2 YPC profile. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Herbert’s first-read volume to Allen (48 receptions/70 targets) and TEN’s soft zones make 5+ catches a high-probability cog for a winning script. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Negative game script versus a fast Chargers front limits efficient rushing lanes for Pollard and compresses his early-down volume. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10If TEN’s defense holds in the red zone and the offense strings quick game success, this number provides cover equity in a lower-total environment. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10An upset path requires volume via pace and short-game passing to mitigate pressure, pushing Ward north of 33 attempts. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Ayomanor’s downfield role (4 catches of 20+) and 12.0 YPR give him chunk potential needed for a live underdog script. Hit Confidence: 6.8/10
Confidence: 6.8/10Spears’ checkdown utility (10 receptions on 11 targets) is critical to sustaining drives and flipping field position for a Titans puncher’s chance. Hit Confidence: 7.1/10
Confidence: 7.1/10Primary closer for a big favorite with 5.2 YPC and consolidated goal-line equity after Najee Harris’ I.L.; script projects multiple red-zone trips. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Team-high trust and 31 first downs translate to heavy red-zone usage against a Titans secondary that concedes underneath leverage. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Explosive profile (8 catches of 20+, 5 TDs) fits play-action and vertical shots that often materialize in compressed field vs. single-high/pressure looks. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Workhorse projection in a −9.5 script and clean ball security (0 fumbles) amplify multi-TD probability via repeated goal-line sequences and fourth-quarter bleed. Hit Confidence: 7.1/10
Confidence: 7.1/10With 6 sacks and 9 TFL facing a QB sacked 34 times, Tuipulotu’s pressure conversion odds spike behind persistent long downs. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Mack’s matchup against a leaky edge and a high dropback count yields plus-money sack equity in a pressure-tilted game. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Under siege OL plus negative script encourage forced throws into a Chargers rush/coverage look that has feasted on mistakes. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10LAC’s drive volume meets a Titans defense that can stiffen in the low red zone, and Dicker is 18/19 with elite 30–49 yard reliability. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Sustained drives are unlikely behind pressure and sacks, and trailing game state shifts attempts toward TD tries over FGs. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10