Market has Chicago a short road favorite (−2.5/−142) with Cincinnati’s offense still adjusting post-Burrow and key Bengals defenders (e.g., Trey Hendrickson, Logan Wilson) banged up. Chicago’s ground game plus Caleb Williams’ mobility offers a steadier floor than a Bengals unit likely to lean run-heavy and shorter throws. With Bears WRs questionable, Chicago’s conservative, ball-control plan still profiles as more reliable than Cincinnati’s ceiling without an elite QB. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10Cincinnati’s script points to a run-centric approach through Chase Brown and TE involvement, while Chicago’s WR injuries (DJ Moore, Rome Odunze) pull them toward a slower, RB/TE-centric game plan. High 51.5 leaves cushion for stalled red-zone trips (both kickers trustworthy) and longer drives; market movement around a field-goal spread favors fewer explosive pass plays. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10Chicago has more stable QB play and a cleaner trench edge versus a Bengals defense with key front-seven questionables, supporting sustained rushing success and play-action. With Cincinnati’s offense likely to trade explosiveness for efficiency, the Bears’ ability to finish drives tilts the cover probability. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Fant owns elite catch efficiency (23 receptions on 25 targets) and averages 3.0 catches per game, fitting a Bengals plan heavy on TE outlets and quick game. Chicago’s focus on Chase/Higgins opens underneath, and a conservative QB approach boosts TE checkdowns. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Fant averages 27.4 receiving yards and runs high-percentage routes, aligning with a Bengals scheme likely to emphasize short/intermediate targets. If Chicago’s corners squeeze perimeter windows, TE seams/flat shots should carry steady yardage. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10Brown has 25 catches on 31 targets (≈3.1 receptions/g), with strong YAC and frequent screens/checkdowns in neutral-to-trailing scripts. Against a Bears front that can squeeze early downs, the RB outlet profile plays up. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Cincinnati’s best path is balance through Brown (97 rushes; ≈12 attempts/g) behind a run-forward script that protects the QB and sets up play-action. Close spread plus Bears’ ball control keeps carries live into the fourth quarter. Hit Confidence: 7.1/10
Confidence: 7.1/10Williams averages ≈31.9 attempts and projects for a run-lean with Chicago favored and top WRs banged up, pushing more RB/TE usage and designed QB keepers. A slower pace with both teams willing to run suppresses total dropbacks. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10An 8.5 reception bar is steep given Cincinnati’s expected target distribution (TEs/RBs elevated) and a game plan limiting pure volume. Chicago can bracket on key downs, and without a true high-volume shootout environment, nine catches is a stretch outcome. Hit Confidence: 7.0/10
Confidence: 7.0/10Chicago’s steadier QB/run game versus a Bengals offense pivoting to lower aDOT concepts makes the favorite’s floor meaningfully higher. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10With WR injuries and Chicago favored, Monangai’s early-down role should expand into 18–22-carry territory behind a script designed to shorten the game. Hit Confidence: 7.0/10
Confidence: 7.0/10Kmet averages 22.0 ypg and benefits from condensed targets to TE versus zone/pressure looks, aiding chain-moving throws that complement a lead. Hit Confidence: 7.3/10
Confidence: 7.3/10Designed keepers and scramble equity against a dinged Bengals front raise Williams’ ground floor in a positive game script. Hit Confidence: 7.2/10
Confidence: 7.2/10Home dog with a run-first, ball-control plan and a tight market (51.5 total) can keep within a field goal via sustained drives and TE/RB-heavy efficiency. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10Brown’s volume (≈12–15 carries) and explosive profile (three 20+ runs) are central to a cover path that shortens the game and sets up play-action. Hit Confidence: 7.0/10
Confidence: 7.0/10With Chase commanding bracket attention, Higgins’ intermediate isolation opportunities (14.4 YPR) become the downfield lever if Cincinnati is live to win. Hit Confidence: 6.8/10
Confidence: 6.8/10If Cincinnati dictates script or plays from ahead, Chicago’s run volume tilts down and Monangai risks falling short of 18 carries. Hit Confidence: 6.7/10
Confidence: 6.7/10Primary goal-line back in a favorite’s script with WRs banged up increases Chicago’s red-zone rush rate and Monangai’s inside-the-5 share. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Bengals’ best TD path is via Brown’s chunk runs/screens; he owns both rushing and receiving TDs and should lead touches near the stripe. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10High aDOT/contested-catch red-zone target (4 TDs) benefits from defensive attention on Chase, unlocking ISO fades/slants in the low red area. Hit Confidence: 7.1/10
Confidence: 7.1/10Lead back in a run-leaning, favorite script with likely elevated goal-line volume due to WR injuries; multiple short plunges are in range if Chicago controls time of possession. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10Conservative red-zone tendencies with injured WRs plus a tight spread create multiple FG tries for a reliable Santos (9/11 FGs, strong 40–49 profile). Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Run-first drives that stall just outside the red zone and McPherson’s range (11/13, 4-for-4 from 40–49) point to two makes. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Sweat’s pressure rate and finish (3 sacks) versus a conservative Bengals pass game still yields at least one true dropback where he can win. Hit Confidence: 7.1/10
Confidence: 7.1/10Ossai (2 sacks, 4 TFL) can capitalize on longer down distances if Chicago is forced into predictable passing in late-half/late-game sequences. Hit Confidence: 6.9/10
Confidence: 6.9/10