Market has Kansas City a short road favorite, and the matchup tilts toward Mahomes against a Bills defense missing key interior pieces (Ed Oliver I.L., DaQuan Jones Q) and DB depth (Taylor Rapp I.L.). If Isiah Pacheco (Q) is limited, Kansas City’s pass rate and RPO usage should spike, leveraging Rashee Rice/Travis Kelce in space versus zone. Buffalo will move it with James Cook, but Kansas City’s pass efficiency and multiple playmakers give them the higher late‑game floor. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10A 52.5 total with a tight spread signals a shootout script: Buffalo’s explosive ground game (James Cook 6.0 YPC, 107.6 rush YPG) plus K.C.’s high‑volume passing should sustain drives and explosives. Defensive attrition on Buffalo’s front and Kansas City’s emphasis on Rice/Kelce underneath elevate scoring efficiency on both sides. Hit Confidence: 8.1/10
Confidence: 8.1/10Correlated with the ML: Mahomes’ edge in late‑down passing and Andy Reid’s pass-centric tilt if Pacheco is limited support K.C. winning by a FG in a high‑total environment. Bills can trade blows via Cook and play‑action, but K.C.’s receiving depth and QB advantage close the gap. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Tight spread plus elevated total points to pass volume, and Pacheco’s knee (Q) further nudges K.C. toward Mahomes-led scripts; he’s averaging ~35 attempts per game with scramble/drift checkdowns when pressured. Bills’ injuries on the back end invite high-percentage throws to Kelce/Rice/Worthy, sustaining attempts into the 4th. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10Primary target with YAC juice (87 YAC on 16 catches) in a scheme that manufactures space; Buffalo’s zone looks and injuries make him the chain-mover and explosive creator. Correlates with Mahomes volume and a game total north of 52—Rice should clear on eight-plus targets. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Kelce’s role remains bankable (37 receptions on 48 targets), and Buffalo’s safety/nickel attrition funnels work to seams and option routes. High total plus late-game two‑minute potential elevate catch floor beyond five. Hit Confidence: 8.1/10
Confidence: 8.1/10Shakir (50.9 YPG) has evolved into Buffalo’s primary WR option with strong slot usage and intermediate separation; K.C. concedes underneath in exchange for capping explosives. Pace and catch-up windows in a projected shootout should push 7–9 targets. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Cook’s efficiency is elite (6.0 YPC) with sustained volume (107.6 rush YPG) and explosive capability; K.C.’s two‑high structures invite Buffalo’s ground game to stay balanced. Even in trailing scripts, Cook’s chunk gains and red‑zone leverage keep him live for 80+. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Mahomes is averaging 35.0 rush YPG with designed keepers and scramble lanes when defenses play man/quarters vs. K.C. option routes; Bills’ coverage shells and stunts open middle escape paths. High leverage 3rd/4th downs further boost scramble equity. Hit Confidence: 8.2/10
Confidence: 8.2/10Mahomes’ passing edge against a banged‑up Bills front/seconday in a high‑total, tight-spread game tilts the late downs to K.C. finishing drives. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Buffalo’s nickel/safety injuries funnel targets to Kelce’s option routes and hot reads, making 5–7 catches the median in this script. Hit Confidence: 8.1/10
Confidence: 8.1/10With Pacheco (knee) questionable and a 52.5 total, K.C. is incentivized to lean into pass volume and RPOs all game. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10Primary YAC WR in a condensed tree versus zone looks has a path to eight-plus targets and multiple explosives. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Buffalo can control tempo with James Cook’s explosive run game while Allen distributes underneath to Shakir/Kincaid to keep this within a field goal. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10If Buffalo leads or keeps neutral script, Cook’s 20‑touch profile and 6.0 YPC efficiency underpin a run‑leaning plan to shorten possessions. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Shakir’s WR1 usage and slot separation versus K.C.’s zone give Buffalo steady chain movement in an upset script. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10In a Bills-forward script, K.C. skews to Mahomes’ arm, capping Hunt’s carries and making sub‑46 rushing yards a strong correlation play. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Primary red‑zone engine (7 rush TDs) behind an efficient run game and heavy usage in a high‑total spot; K.C.’s two‑high shells concede RB scoring chances. Hit Confidence: 8.4/10
Confidence: 8.4/10Designed YAC touches and RZ schematics (option/mesh) put Rice in space where Buffalo’s shorthanded secondary is vulnerable. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Route versatility vs. nickel LBs/safeties plus Mahomes’ scramble drill chemistry keeps Kelce a high‑leverage RZ target. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Bills’ best path is run-led with Cook’s explosive rate and goal‑line share; his breakaway ability plus multi‑carry RZ sequences create realistic 2‑TD upside in a 52.5‑total game. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10High-possession game with some RZ resistance should yield 2+ attempts for a trusted leg in Butker (12/15 with three 50+ makes). Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Jones’ interior win rate versus a Bills line that will be in frequent true pass sets in a shootout gives strong pressure-to-sack conversion. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Edge pressure opposite Jones plus late‑down volume from Buffalo creates opportunistic cleanup sack chances. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Bosa’s burst and counter game versus extended Mahomes dropbacks offers multiple high‑win rush reps to cash 1 sack. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10