Market is firmly on Denver (−9/−9.5, ~80% implied ML) with a top-10 pass rush (Bonitto/Allen/Cooper) facing a Raiders offense allowing 21 sacks with Geno Smith already at 11 INTs and LT Kolton Miller on IR, increasing negative plays in Mile High. Bo Nix has been efficient (17 TD, 6 INT) and Denver's home script should suppress volatility late. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Short-week, altitude game with Denver likely to lean run once ahead, and Vegas tending toward Daniel Carlson drives rather than TDs when the offense stalls under pressure. Both fronts can win (DEN edges, LV with Crosby) which curbs explosives and red-zone conversion rates. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Aligned with the ML and matchup: Denver’s rush/coverage synergy should translate to short fields and a possession edge, while Vegas’ protection issues (Miller IR) amplify sack/turnover risk. A balanced Broncos plan (Nix efficiency + RB pass-game) supports a two-score result. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Sutton’s baseline (62.9 ypg, 10 gains of 20+) and red-zone utility pair with Nix’s 219.6 ypg to clear this modest number; Denver should script early throws before salting clock. His 27 first downs underscore chain-moving volume against a Vegas defense that can concede perimeter chunk plays when blitzing. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10Franklin averages 42.8 ypg and runs a high route rate opposite Sutton, benefitting from single coverage and Denver’s play-action explosives. With Vegas tilted to slow Sutton, Franklin’s intermediate space and YAC profile are strong to 40+. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Harvey has 23 catches on 26 targets (18.4 receiving ypg) and is used on screens/angle routes that punish pressures; Vegas’ edge rush pushes Nix to quick outlets. One or two designed looks plus checkdowns typically clear this number. Hit Confidence: 8.5/10
Confidence: 8.5/10Bowers’ role (70.4 ypg, heavy YAC) and Geno’s tendency to use the TE as a hot read under pressure set up volume versus Denver’s rush; trailing script adds late targets. He’s cleared or flirted with this mark on modest targets thanks to efficiency. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10With 43 targets and 427 yards, Tucker’s speed demands cushion and quick-hitter volume, especially if Vegas is behind and pass rate climbs. Slot and motion usage raise his catch floor to reach 4 receptions. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10As a near double-digit home favorite, Denver projects run-balanced with planned efficiency (Nix 6.1 YPA but strong RZ TD rate) and late-game rush skew, capping attempts. RB involvement in the pass game preserves efficiency without volume sprawl. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Denver’s front should control the LOS against a Raiders OL missing Kolton Miller, creating extra possessions and a clear two-score path at home. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Primary read with a 62.9 ypg baseline and 27 first downs, Sutton’s target share supports 5+ catches in a scripted, on-schedule passing plan. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Franklin averages 42.8 ypg and benefits from single coverage opposite Sutton, with play-action shot potential to clear this total on 3–4 grabs. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Designed keepers/scrambles versus man/pressure looks and RZ read-options make 21+ a reasonable floor for Nix in a positive script. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Harvey’s 23 receptions on 26 targets and screen usage versus Raiders’ rush create multiple pathways to 13+ receiving yards. Hit Confidence: 8.2/10
Confidence: 8.2/10If Vegas limits turnovers and Carlson finishes drives, +9.5 cashes with Geno’s quick-game keeping pace against Denver’s rush. Hit Confidence: 7.6/10
Confidence: 7.6/10Bowers’ 70.4 ypg and elite YAC make him the pressure-beater to move chains and unlock explosives if the Raiders hang around. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Tucker’s 43 targets and motion/slot usage fit a catch-volume script required for a cover or upset push. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10If Vegas keeps it within a score, Jeanty’s lead-back role (124 carries) trends to 16+ attempts to balance Geno and neutralize Denver’s rush. Hit Confidence: 7.4/10
Confidence: 7.4/10Lead back with dual-threat red-zone usage (6 total TDs) and screen/game-action near the goal line; Denver’s edge pressure can open cutback lanes and option pitches inside the 10. Hit Confidence: 8.2/10
Confidence: 8.2/10Primary RZ target with strong contested-catch profile and play-action usage; Sutton’s 4 TDs and high first-down rate align with scripted shots in the low red. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Geno’s best pressure answer (TE seams and YAC) in condensed field; Bowers’ designed touches and motion make him the focal point inside the 20. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Denver leverages Sutton in isolation and condensed splits near the stripe, and with a positive game script he can stack a deep shot plus a low-red play-action score. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Bonitto (8 sacks) draws a Raiders line missing LT Kolton Miller, and Geno has taken 21 sacks—pressure should convert at least once. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Allen (5 sacks) benefits from interior stunts vs. a line that struggles with games, with Geno’s longer holds under duress inviting a takedown. Hit Confidence: 7.8/10
Confidence: 7.8/10Crosby (12.5 sacks) wins vs. any RT and can cash on play-action boots or longer developing downfield shots to Sutton/Franklin. Hit Confidence: 7.9/10
Confidence: 7.9/10Vegas settles for kicks against pressure fronts, and Carlson’s elite range/accuracy (34/37) sustains 2+ FG paths even while trailing. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10With an illness tag and Denver’s TD-favoring script in the RZ, Lutz is slightly more likely to finish at one or fewer FGs. Hit Confidence: 7.5/10
Confidence: 7.5/10Denver’s pass rush vs. Vegas protection plus home altitude supports a two-score cover on script stability and field-position edges. Hit Confidence: 7.7/10
Confidence: 7.7/10Alpha target with a 62.9 ypg baseline and deep usage; early-game shots plus chain-moving outs provide multiple paths to 54+. Hit Confidence: 8.3/10
Confidence: 8.3/10Secondary WR averaging 42.8 ypg who benefits from single coverage and play-action crossers against zone gaps. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10Heavy favorite game state and RB involvement point to a sub-34 attempt night for a scripted, efficient Nix. Hit Confidence: 8.0/10
Confidence: 8.0/10High catch rate and screen/flat usage vs. pressure give Harvey a strong floor to clear a low number. Hit Confidence: 8.5/10
Confidence: 8.5/10