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The Broncos narrowly escaped a win in Week 9, edging the Houston Texans 18–15 with a last-second field goal, despite losing star CB Patrick Surtain II to injury and looking vulnerable in the secondary.(silverandblackpride.com) Denver have now won six straight to improve to 7-2, their best start since 2015, riding a top-tier defensive unit and a gritty, if imperfect, offense. While they generate explosive plays, they struggle to sustain drives, especially on third down where they rank near the bottom of the league. Their run game has big upside—leading the league in yards per carry—but is highly volatile, offering high variance in output. Offensively, Bo Nix remains a work in progress, showing flashes of deep-ball effectiveness but too often converting poorly under pressure or in third-and-medium spots. Still, with Denver’s defense forcing turnovers and maintaining interior penetration, they’ve been able to close games—five of their seven wins have come by one score.(nbcsports.com)
Injuries
Offense Marvin Mims Jr. – WR – Limited / concussed(denverbroncos.com) Nate Adkins – TE – OUT / knee injury(denverbroncos.com) Defense Pat Surtain II – CB – OUT / pectoral strain (expected to miss multiple weeks)(si.com) Riley Moss – CB – Limited / ankle(theplayoffs.news) Brandon Jones – S – Limited / foot(theplayoffs.news) P.J. Locke – S – Limited / neck(denverbroncos.com)
Coaching & Scheme
Head Coach Sean Payton’s Broncos lean heavily on a physical, aggressive defensive scheme, emphasizing off-coverage mismatches and blitz packages that force opposing quarterbacks into tight windows. With Pat Surtain II sidelined, Kris Abrams-Draine and Jahdae Barron are being asked to fill more reps—Payton has emphasized their growth and discipline in coverage.(gazette.com) Offensively, Payton calls for a balanced attack: they lean on RB J.K. Dobbins’ burst and Bo Nix’s improvisational ability when pass protectors fail. The play-calling in the red zone has been efficient, though Bo Nix’s third-and medium struggles have kept drives short at times. Special teams and field position are key given defense’s strength in forcing opponents into long-distance attempts. Adjustments lately include dialing back on conservative play calls when leading, trying to put the game out of reach rather than clinging on.(silverandblackpride.com)
Matchup Analysis
Las Vegas enters Week 10 a broken offense designed to test the Broncos’ missing secondary pieces. The Raiders’ wide receiver corps just lost Jakobi Meyers (traded to Jaguars), meaning they’ll rely heavily on Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, and secondary targets—none of which match Surtain’s coverage ability.(lines.com) Denver’s pass rush—with Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen, and Malcolm Roach—should be able to generate pressure and expose Geno Smith’s interception tendencies (he’s among NFL leaders in picks) when targets are limited and gets pressured.(lines.com) The Broncos’ own offense will face a Raiders defense susceptible between the numbers: linebackers and safeties have allowed consistent gains on short passes and TE-backs, and Las Vegas has missed tackles and yielded chunk plays, especially late in games.(silverandblackpride.com) But Las Vegas might try to keep the pacing slow, control clock with the run game, and avoid turnovers—if Denver’s offense starts fast, the Raiders’ lack of explosive options could mean collapse. Special teams could swing field position significance in this battle at altitude.
Team Summary
Denver’s identity is built on physical defense, opportunistic offense, and mental toughness. When they’re at home, they force turnovers, limit explosive plays, and stay within themselves offensively—running effectively, taking shots downfield, and avoiding mistakes on third down, even if the success rate remains middling. Without Surtain II, the secondary loses elite talent, which pushes more responsibility to Moss, Barron, Abrams-Draine, and valued safeties. Broncos win if they impose their defensive edge: force the Raiders out of rhythm, avoid giving up big plays, and let the run game wear out the opponent. Offensively, clean execution early—especially on third downs—and limiting turnovers becomes critical. For Vegas, the path to pulling off the upset will require controlling tempo, avoiding negative plays, and converting red zone opportunities. But given their declining offense and injury losses, especially at receiver and edge presence, they’ll need perfect performance to stay competitive.
Key Takeaway
With the Broncos missing Pat Surtain II, their secondary is exposed. However, the proficiency of their front seven and Vegas’s offensive plasticity make Denver a heavy favorite. Expect the Broncos to win by double digits, especially if they execute early.