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The Raiders fell in a close one in Week 9, losing in overtime to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 30-29, after failing a two-point conversion to win it. The game exposed their offensive inconsistency and trouble closing tight games.(en.wikipedia.org) Prior to that, Las Vegas was shut out 31-0 by Kansas City—an alarming display of how far they are from competent passing offense and secondary coverage matchups.(en.wikipedia.org) Overall, the offense has scored only 16.5 points per game (third-worst in NFL), with Geno Smith throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns. They’ve struggled against divisional opponents, especially on the road. Defensively, they’ve had flashes (e.g., vs Titans), but a weak pass rush and linebacking corps that allow short passes and lack tackling consistency have undermined repeat performance.(nbcsports.com)
Injuries
Offense Brock Bowers – TE – Full participation but recovering from toe/knee issues(actionnetwork.com) Defense Isaiah Pola-Mao – S – Limited / hip(actionnetwork.com) Adam Butler – DT – Limited / back(theplayoffs.news)
Coaching & Scheme
Under Pete Carroll, the Raiders employ a balanced scheme with aging veterans in the back end, emphasizing zone coverage behind press-man starts. Geno Smith’s system leans on quick throws, relying on timing over deep shots. When the trenches hold up, Smith finds success in yards after the catch (YAC), especially from tight ends and running backs. However, offensive line breakdowns and pressure have been costly, increasing his interception rate and decreasing efficiency in clutch situations. The run blocking has been serviceable at times but lacks consistency, and the Raiders rarely dominate time of possession or field position. Defensively, their front four (including Crosby and Butler) demand double teams, but once removed from the pocket, quarterbacks have exposed the linebackers in intermediate zones. Carroll’s scheme has adaptability, but with injuries and gaps in personnel, especially in secondary depth, his adjustments are often limited to variation rather than full schematic change.
Matchup Analysis
Facing a Broncos defense that still ranks among the league’s top for pressure%, defeat or discomfort will again be likely for Geno Smith unless Las Vegas can protect him cleanly. The absence of Jakobi Meyers lowers both depth and matchup flexibility in the passing game; Brock Bowers becomes a high-target lever, but Denver have linebackers with decent coverage traits and a pass rush that funnels outside. On defense, the Raiders will need to slow down Denver’s run game (which averages over 5 yds/carry) to force Denver one-dimensional. Without that, the Broncos will control clock and tempo, further exposing Las Vegas’ secondary to deep throws. The Raiders must win the turnover battle and avoid negative plays—deep deficits have torched them this season. On special teams, any mistake could be magnified given the projected close-to-blowout nature of this one.
Team Summary
Las Vegas’ season hinges now on moral victories rather than playoff hopes. The offense is broken at its core: top receivers moved or injured, Geno Smith turnover prone, and schematic constraints. Defensively they make enough plays to frustrate opponents but give up chunks when pushed—especially downfield or over the middle. They possess the physicality to survive early, but not to close well or withstand attrition across four quarters, especially in hostile environments. The win condition: stay within one score to halftime, then force enough pass rush and make one or two big plays via the ground game or tight ends. But even with that, Vegas is trending toward being outplayed across phases.
Key Takeaway
Las Vegas has too many flaws and too few playmakers to keep pace with a Denver team gaining confidence. Expect the Raiders to underachieve again—struggling to cover the spread, while staying under in total points due to offensive inefficiency and Denver’s defensive discipline.